Much of the way we have been taught to think is in parts - we break things down into more easily understandable chunks. But, as Aristotle would say, the whole is more than the sum of its parts. According to https://youtu.be/VUXeQGsVbqU?si=jP-b-vHEu84RUjjB, there are six mental models that will help us see problems as a whole. ### 1. Non-linear organisation We tend to be most familiar with linear thinking: A leads to B which leads to C. A sequence. But in reality, the bigger picture of the world is not like that - things are cyclical or a web of cause and effect. Things are interconnected. And this is important, because if we don't realise this then we can get unintended consequences of changing any of the elements. ### 2. [[Systems Thinking - Stocks and Flows|Stocks and Flows]] - **Stocks** – things you can count (e.g. cash, customers, inventory). - **Flows** – actions or events that change the stocks (e.g. purchases, refunds, leads). ### 3. [[The iceberg model]] Four levels of realities: **Level 1: Events** – What happened? (e.g. "Sales dropped last month") **Level 2: Patterns/Trends** – What keeps happening over time? **Level 3: Systemic Structures** – What processes or relationships drive the pattern? **Level 4: Mental Models** – What beliefs or assumptions shape those structures? We tend to think at the level of events, but this can lead us to treating symptoms and not the causes. ### 4. Bottleneck The system is only as strong as its weakest part. Bottlenecks are **where value gets delayed or lost** Look for: - High delays. - Overloaded teams. - Recurring complaints. The 80 20 rule might be applicable here to focus on the **most limiting factor** first.. ### 5. Second order thinking Most people think in first order - if A, then B. But second order thinking considers the implications beyond this - if I do A, what else might happen *because* B happened? Before acting, ask: - What are _all_ the likely consequences? - What don’t I know? - How confident am I in this prediction? ### 6. Feedback loop Feedback loops **allow a system to self-regulate** or evolve. Two types: - **Reinforcing loop**: action amplifies further action (e.g. positive reviews → more customers → more reviews). - **Balancing loop**: action limits itself (e.g. sales rise → stock falls → delivery delays → sales drop).